0 views. You guys don’t care T_T
Well I sold everything, so if you invest now… I don’t benefit!
tl;dr Humans are like waves of light, with our actions superimposed on a graph. This month I gambled everything I own nine times (do not advise) and by trusting my patience, knowledge of the global economy, risk-reward optimization, and experience with quantum superpositioning, I was able to make an 11.7% profit! This is good because I want to make as little effort as possible!
Going to analyze some real world predictions about bitcoin. If this news did not benefit me then I would not share it (so take my words with a grain of salt). The price of bitcoin just broke the $7199usd/btc resistance, therefore according to ‘Fibonacci retracement‘ (math’s best prediction model) the next level of resistance is at $7504usd/btc. This means the price will rise. As for altcoin, a recent (and rather biased) study predicted that Monero would rise 1300% (edit: article debunked September 2nd – I don’t think price will pass 123usd according to historical data from Tuesday). Whether this is a meaningful prediction or not, the ‘market depth’ is low, so it is easy for speculators to ‘pump’ the price upward over the next few days. Fibonacci sequences are part of the math curriculum for engineering & physics undergrads. Never risk more than you are willing to lose. I realize many people don’t view cryptocurrency as a currency because it is not government-backed. I view this as an advantage, because government-backed currency is issued by banks, which are allowed to issue out ten times the currency they receive. This becomes a problem when banks keep issuing money to each other, leading to over 95% of usd being created through debt, and the same problem existing for the euro. In order to combat this problem, governments can tell banks to invest in natural resources (gold, oil, and precious metals) to safeguard the buying power of a country’s currency. Or a government can deregulate banks and tell them to issue trillions of dollars to the government. This is bad for everyone else because it causes inflation. The advantage of ‘mined’ cryptocurrency is that it is not issued by the banks. It is created through solving complex math problems. The obvious solution is to revert to physically-backed currency such as gold, silver, copper, and nickel. Though countries which try doing this (Libya & Venezuala) tend to attract hostility from the military that is funded by Wallstreet’s money-laundering. Of all the cryptocurrency, bitcoin has the most name-recognition, and it is easy to exchange between altcoins and bitcoin on exchanges. Currency holds value if it is accepted by companies, and cryptocurrency has been adopted by many retailers as an alternative payment method because the fees are cheaper than credit cards & Paypal! Therefore bitcoin is the next big thing in the world of day trading and market speculation. The analysts hyping Monero are probably biased against the fractional-reserve banking system and – like myself – have a vested interest in its price rising. Bitcoin and Monero are notorious for their anonymity, which helps criminals to evade law-enforcement. Other cryptocurrencies solve this problem, yet consumers choosing anonymity over transparency has led to many countries placing bans on selling cryptocurrency without a license. Trading on an exchange can prevent money-laundering, giving government the oversight to audit for tax-evasion and defrauding. But the main advantage is lower fees. Ideally you could buy at market price from another individual on a site like localbitcoins if your country allowed, but charges ten times the fees of Kraken or Poloniex. Here’s a guide on avoiding scams, and you can check what other traders require of buyers to ensure that they can prove to the bank that the transaction is legitimate and non-refundable. Generally the buyer provides a receipt and ID with a written note to show they are legit, and then the website admins settle any dispute. This takes more time than trading on an exchange, but is more profitable for small investors with a lot of time on their hands. Another way to make money is arbitrage, and moving averages. Generally you want to buy low and sell high, so that you can make a profit after paying the fees. But a lot of people panic and sell under pressure. This is fine if you’re in the green and want to secure your gains, but if you’ve never set a contingency plan and cannot follow your own advice, then you’re going to lose a lot of money. But feel free to impulsively give me your money (^.^) At some point every upward trend ends, and we secure our gains, cut our losses, or wait it out. Bitcoin is like gambling. That’s why I use Martingale hedging to invest more and more as the prices rise or fall into my comfort zones. Every day I setup a chart, telling me how much to buy or sell and at what prices, or I day trade at a 4-7% margin and let other people take all the risks heh heh. I know… This is a transgender erotica blog, so I apologize if you did not enjoy learning about bitcoin (>.<)
September 5th update: Looks like a bear flag. A sharp drop, followed a few days of squeezed stable price range, followed by temporary rise and a fast drop. Like on June 9th and July 9th… Which means $6900usd/btc is a TERRIBLE time to buy! (Edit: Wow. It fell past $6400. Don’t know how long I will have to hold to break-even. The temporary rise never came…)
September 8th update: Definitely a bear market. Downtrend is losing its momentum but expect rebounds to be temporary. Take your profits at every chance and wait for new lows to be tested. Market is controlled by the sellers. Only way to make profits is short-term trading or charging large margin fees. This guy has a great tip for bear markets.
September 9th update: Watch for the wedges. Whenever the price-range is squeezed then wedges become a better indicator than daily moving average, because of all the spikes. Frustrating market. Momentum changes might signal some short-term highs in the dogecoin and etherium market… But etherium and bitcoin have failed to turn bullish this morning. (12hrs later: Dogecoin for the wiiiiiin!!!) As of now, I am completely biased in favour of dogecoin. It’s established a MUCH stronger trend than any other crypto coin including bitcoin. I bought-in before the upward spike. “Arf!“ I’ll hold my dogecoin until it reaches the same time of day as the last big peak this week, or until it hits a new local low.
September 11th update: Crap. I need to use stop loss.
September 13th update: I’ve noticed the daily pattern. Dogecoin usually maxes out at around 10pm EST which is the best time to sell, and dips low at around 4pm EST which is the best time to buy! By taking advantage of this pattern I can profit even if the price decreases 🙂
September 14 update: … No buyers. My predictions were correct but I surpassed market saturation. Demand for some coins is higher on a Chinese exchange so I will try there.
September 18 update: I was staying even the past two days with good trading choices despite the drops in both bitcoin and doge. But now I’m fked. Well I think I’ll wait it out. But doge has a history of PLUMMETING around this time, so…..
September 22 update: Very risky to invest now. Ripple, Mona and bitcoin got a strong pump and are holding. The ETF… Last month there was a pump because of an ETF maybe getting approved but it was delayed ’til the end of September. But apparently ETFs get denied all the time and there have already been bitcoin ETFs around since February?! I wonder if banks can ETFs as collateral, or even the company stock of the companies that the ETF invests in. Which companies can the ETF invest in without a conflict of interest? Some names I dug-up are Nasdaq NextGen Economy (BLCN) by Reality Shares, Transformational Data Sharing (BLOK) by Amplify, First Trust (LEGR), and for Canada there’s Harvest Portfolios (HBLK) and Evolve Funds Inc. (LINK). It seems you have to be rich to start an ETF or it will not be approved because only bankers are supposed to control cryptocurrency. As for my investment into DOGE? It went terrible. For me the most stressful part of exchange trading is the psychological stress from checking hourly for price action and having to wait a long time because you don’t know when the next high or low will be. It’s also extremely frustrating to call the highs but not have orders filled, so if you are gonna be placing large orders on altcoins then I suggest choosing a high volume exchange where you can get a lot of liquidity, or better yet: multiple exchanges for maximum market depth. I invested into doge because I was afraid of bitcoin breaking sub-6k, but I think that until doge gets its ETH bridge, it will stay a pump-and-dump market with bearish action after each dramatic price surge. Every time I note a trend or pattern or indicator, it vanishes within days. What annoys me the most is how some days doge follows bitcoin 1:1 and other days it completely ignores bitcoin fluctuations. I hypothesize that doge dumps are a reverse-indicator for bitcoin pumps, and that panic in the bitcoin market is a positive-indicator for doge pumps.
September 23 conspiracy theories: We always read news about banks gaining interest in cryptocurrency. About trust funds applying for approval. About bankers interviewing day traders and scoffing about the idea of bitcoin as a currency. So then it’s odd that these trust funds have existed for months. That banks have had their fingers in crypto for over two years. That the creator of cryptocurrency claims to be an anonymous individual who is benevolent to never profit from his creation and its forks, yet skilled enough to do the programming of several highly-skilled team of professionals. It’s odd that the IRS seizes bank accounts of cash-only businesses and that when you carry around more than $5000 in America that the police can steal it and not give it back until you the victim prove YOUR innocence. It’s odd that you can’t ask a bank teller for gold, or silver, or over $10,000 in cash. That your account will be flagged if you withdraw $5000 or receive $3000 – well, I can agree with that last one because this method actually does catch criminals. But all of these things share one thing in common: banks are not required to hand out as much physical cash. Owning money has been criminalized, and you are expected to hand your money over to the banks, who legally own your deposit in return for an IOU (I owe you). Maybe intelligence agencies needed a way to funnel money to black projects anonymously because investigators were catching onto the $21,000,000,000,000 of misappropriated Pentagon spending. Maybe think tanks predicted cryptocurrency, and realized before any of us peons that the ones to invest first are the ones to take profit and control the market. Maybe Satoshi Nakomoto is not the selfless saint everyone proclaims. So why isn’t anyone talking about cryptocurrency being controlled by the banks? Why isn’t anyone talking about large time deposits being issued by US banks without any public statistics being shared and with total immunity to the federal reserve laws? Why aren’t journalists allowed to mention that the US military is funded by Wallstreet, who invests in the oil and mining projects that US occupations/interventions/proxy wars facilitate?? It’s not just about competitive transaction fees and exchange rates. The banks bought-in early, and all we hear about is how banks are tepidly starting to gain interest in crypto. The economy is still rigged in favor of the affluent, and your everyday labourer will never be able to make a living off mining crypto on her gaming PC. The way to make money is to have money. The price of labour is ordained by the wealthy (unless you have a union or syndicate), and the people who bought into crypto two years ago like the bankers and hedge funds are the ones to control the market now. I think this would explain why many bear runs are too steep for day traders to profit from. When yesterday’s low is tomorrow’s high, the dumpers take all the profit. And they can afford to, because they bought-in at $670 instead of $6700.
Remember, this is just conspiracy theories, accounting for one fraction of price action. This month a stronger force at play was stop losses exacerbating downwards motion, and miners looking to keep their return on interests profitable forming a strong support level at $6200 – as has been the case all year! The world is much more chaotic than we grow up believing, and bankers are more likely to make short-term profits than responsibly govern themselves as seen in the subprime mortgage crisis. So while all of these factors might converge, it’s important to note that everyone is acting independently to protect their own interests.
September 24 update: Sold into yesterday’s doge peak as the momentum died. I should’ve moved my coins to multiple exchanges. Now I’m on Poloniex and Kraken. Seems 0.0058usd/xdg is the key fib retracement level which we lost with yesterday’s bitcoin decline. I tried to sell at last night’s btc high but was too greedy and wanted to trail doge coin. Well that worked. I bought a lot at 0.00000087xbt/xdg after selling lots at 0.00000090 and 0.00000092. I dumped on Kraken when ZB dumped but I could’ve dumped more if I’d moved coins to Poloniex! Strong 213mil doge resistance at 0.0065600 and weak 39mil doge support at 0.0058580 which broke after I fell asleep. Scary but I’ll wait for the next pump. I’m sure we’ll retest 0.0058 soon. Is the bitcoin fib retracement indicates 6541usd/btc as next level support. I’ll dump if we breach it. Actually doge is hyped for being immune to btc dumps but it dumped with doge three times this week! Today’s retracement can’t go lower than 0.00577xbt/xdg but 0.00573xbt/xdg which could spell disaster! Doge is doing bad mate!
Bitcoin rebounding off support. I really should dump my doge… But there’s no good offers on the market and this high-volume squeeze at the 0.00000086xbt/xdg buy wall is highly suspicious. Market depth is like three times higher for buy orders than sell orders. I know that’s not an indicator but I can only liquidate 16% of my doge coin right now. This is the problem with alt coins!!
September 28 update: I think the people involved in selling Enercon’s research to Kenetech would be among the first to know about blockchain and hyperinflation. It is also odd that Libya’s revolutionaries replaced the central bank and gold dinar before establishing a government or conquering the country, and that middle eastern countries that don’t sell oil in USDs tend to get bombed. I also don’t think someone would premine a coin without any plans to sell it. It’s also odd that I see so much news how Wallstreet is about to start investing in bitcoin when they’ve been invested for 2 years, or how crypto ETFs are on the verge of approval when they’ve been around since last winter. Makes me bearish. Up to you to decide if it’s just conspiracy theories but my point is that powerful buyers have probably already made their moves. If cable news sponsors didn’t benefit from bitcoin hype then the news coverage and restrictive legislation would be a lot different!
September 30 update: I finished moving and missed the internet technician and Cogeco said I’d have to wait a week but then they showed up the very next morning! Very pleased 🙂 Looks like the stock price of ‘peabody energy corporation’ will eventually stop dropping and then rebound up along the fibonnaci retracement. Bitcoin still hovering around 6600 and I had some great trades today with my stop market sells! Rebought into the dump at a great price and am holding for 6750-6800 or a tempting dump! Price differs across the different exchanges but for some reason USDT is sold at less than $1 on kraken? I had a fun day listening to https://www.twitch.tv/cryptotraderstv and making good trades. Setting a stop loss (stop market) is important! So that if there is a dump you can avoid losing money and even rebuy at a better price! If bitcoin rises past 6800 then I might go back to being a merchant on localbitcoins.
October 1st update: Here are four possible outcomes: up down up, down up up, or down DOWN: diagram
Ok so… So I watched the price like a hawk for six hours as it oscillated between 6540 and 6580. The most unnerving thing all week. Trading experts said it’d crash to 6150, stream viewers were calling for 5800, 4000, 6300. One of the most experienced viewers said it’d fall below 6560. My buy-in was 6155 and my stop market was around 6130. Every single drop I was ready to dump – but every single drop was reaaaaally slow, and every single buyback was slower and slower and slower..! I had no clue why this was happening. I’d lost some money with selling a ninth of my networth to buy back at peak price this morning, expecting a test of 6700, but viewers were now calling for a dump, the under-6560 guys were donating to the streamers after they predicted a dump to 6150 and swapped to radio silence. Were they planning something in secret? A pump or a dump??? My Fibonnaci signal fell allllll the way from 6880 daily to 6610 hourly. So I moved my sell orders from 6750 to 6700… I have a rule of thumb to sell in profit and only stop loss when I’m certain I can profit (whether having a stop loss in profit or profiting from buyback at a cheap price). But the price kept returning to 6560! Over, and over. So I set my sell order to 6595, made a stealthy sequence of 21 sell orders, spreading from 6578.9 to 6597.9, and took a nap – to stop double guessing myself. And you know what? The price jumped to 6600 and jumped right down to 6560 😛 $2 over my highest sell order!! The Fibonnacci pivot level is your friend! Now I am gonna wait for bitcoin to dump to a new low. If the price falls rapidly to a new low then I will buy. We can’t have 6800 or 6750 or 6700, so I grabbed the next-best thing: the 6610 Fibonnacci level. $2! All I can feel is tiredness and relief 😀 If we stick to the 4-hour Fibonnaci retracement levels then the next min or max price should reach to within $16 of 6393.5 or 6583.9 (as of 7pm EST). Still might be a massive pump to 6700 or 6800 but I’m betting my money on a test of 6393.5. If it’s a sharp dump with momentum then I’ll wait for the next level down (don’t know where that is yet). Oh and the best part? After setting the sell orders I fell asleep and hit those optimal liquidation prices in my sleep 😀
October 2nd update: If you’re trying to avoid losing money in the upcoming global destruction of the economy, the next hyperinflation event, the – the… THE. CRASH. Then invest in gold not bitcoin. Bitcoin is also digital money. Gold keeps its value. Silver too. Preferably in cold hard physical form (though that’s hard to protect). Bitcoin is for gamblers. Though it’s better than paper money in the longrun.
I think stablecoins are an indicator. Because arbitrage. When it costs more to buy XBT with USDT than with USD then it’s a bear market because the XBT (bitcoin) sellers lead the market and determine that they want the buyers to pay the transfer+conversion fees for USDT! If USDT/XBT nears USD/XBT then it’s because buyers have more influence or there are fewer sellers. Maybe. -Nevermind! USDT/XBT might also be expensive today because Noble Bank doesn’t have enough usd to meet withdraw demands. Perhaps a precursor of what other banks will face. It seems I can’t access the chinese exchange without a proxy Anyone else unable to visit ZB.com..? Yeah that’s because you don’t have net neutrality, or your connection goes through a node that doesn’t have net neutrality. (Edit: Or a ZB feature to prevent DDOS.)
October 5th update: I think premined altcoins don’t rise with btc because as long as they’re bullish then idiots like me will buy and that is all bigshot miners need to push the price back up is public interest. If you ever hear someone say, “it ignores the price of btc” or, “it doesn’t drop when btc drops” then they are probably wrong. The preminers don’t need to worry about buying at the best price – they just want to sell at the best price! So the more buyers the more they can sell, and they dump when btc dumps and sell wall when btc pumps. I think. Maybe. Does it make sense? If they pumped on their own then day traders would penalize them. Once they’ve made an all-time high then other buyers will place sell walls so it is harder to pump again. Pump high, and then dump when bitcoin dumps, until xbt/alt is worthless. Then pump again when the hype comes. But which coin will do that? Should I keep HODL’ing stellar lumens? I coulda profited twice already but am waiting for a bullish pump
October 6th update: I think $6415usd is the best price to buy bitcoin, but I’m buying at $6553. Bitcoin is leading the market so I don’t see much benefit in buying altcoins right now. Only buy what you can sell quickly. Someone said something wise: “There are four kinds of trades. Profitable, really profitable, losses, and really big losses. Setting a stop loss eliminates big losses.” So I am checking the price every waking hour. (Stop loss and stop market mean the same thing for HODL’ers.)
Stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Average) dipped a bit in the past few days. How long can the bullish stock market continue? We will see a breakthrough in bitcoin prices when the stock market crashes. Not ‘if’. ‘When’.
Oh! So the reason stop market or stop loss is important is because of longs getting liquidated! I can’t explain as well as reddit.
October 7: Kraken with a higher price than bitmex! (It’s usually slightly lower.) I am going to flip my btc to buy long with x2 leverage. (Ok. Now should I split my altcoin across multiple exchanges for higher liquidity? HODL is so borrrinnng! And I want to avoid stellar/usdt pair because of the upcoming usdt queue on withdrawals. Tether is having problems keeping up with demand.)
Maybe candles and fakeouts are to place leverage orders? Not just to bait out more market depth.
October 8: Disclaimer: Nothing I say here should be construed as legal advice. I mean nothing I say is financial advice. Because that’s illegal in some places. Yep. Definitely not advice. Tooootally writing this for no reason. Anyways,
I’ve bet everything I own on bitcoin hitting 6750 – no wait, 6700 – no wait, 6660usd/bitcoin sometime this year. I’ll cycle my Stellar into Bitcoin when we hit 6610, and sell aggressively at it approaches 6650. 6440 is my stop loss because there’s always a meme support level at 6420 which means there’s some sort of attractor-field in 6420’s price zone of 6405 to 6438. Most support levels don’t bring the price down. It’s a magical price in the world of bitcoin. I cancelled my retirement savings plan as soon as I could. And you know what? I messed-up with many of my investments! But I never risked more than I was willing to lose. Trade better than your competitors and avoid the big losses. Remember, you can buy it back cheaper. Oh and we broke out of the descending wedge from September! Remember those peaks? If you connect them with a line and project it to today, the wedge ends! This means we are in very bullish territory SO WHY ISN’T THE PRICE RISING? I’ll complain about banks suppressing bitcoin Global Economy post.
Rose from 6555 to test 6600. Pulled an all-nighter as it oscillated between 6600 and 6580. Finally broke through! I’d liquidated half before the 6600 mark and liquidate the rest after. Hoping 6660 is a strong resistance but as I’m saying this it’s breaking down! What next – 7000? It’s exactly 6660. I don’t want to buy.
Ahahaha. 20 seconds and it’s down from 6666 to 6646. I’m so glad I watched that video today. SMP500, anyone? Thank you ‘The Money GPS’.
October 9: Great news for Ripple https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L52wmrDWjCM International SWIFT payments gonna use the exact same functions as Ripple, developed by a third party that’s probably not a bank, which uses internet ‘tokens’. Hmmmm, WHICH TOKEN COULD IT BE? The only option is Ripple. Haven’t heard anyone talking about this in the Stellar community. Ripple will give a speech at SWIFT’s next conference.
There will be a senate hearing this Thursday by the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs to discuss “Exploring the Cryptocurrency and blockchain Ecosystem.”
October 10th update: Mike from cryptotraderstv got REALLY mad when someone said the price would stay within a ±20$ range for a few weeks IN THE CONTEXT OF INSIDER INFORMATION that he’s NOT supposed to share on Stream! Banks trying to prove to the Fed that they can keep bitcoin prices under control might be the reason for this low-volatility price-squeeze… I got burned on tonight’s dump. It fell so slowly that I was hesitating the whole way down. Anyways. It’s already been weeks, so does this mean the rest of October?? Where is this Crypto senate hearing streamed anyways?
I was utterly wrong. Utterly. Bitcoin dropped 1.7%. I didn’t take the 0.19% profit because I thought it would rise 0.47%. Respect your Fibonacci retracements.
Well I made everything back during today’s dump.
October 15 update: I am losing sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much money. If it stays at 6700 I’m toast.
Heading back towards break even. Toying with some flips between 6400 and 6420… Don’t buy below 6240! Look at this: https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/ I have never seen transaction volumes this high! There is going to be a big selloff below 6400 level.
October 21: Lost money yesterday; made it back today. Bitcoin was in equilibrium between 6400 and 6420, with levels at 6388 and 6454, so I tried to do a trend-trade with the price direction once it broke 6400 or 6420, but it went back down to the other level as soon as I opened my trade. At least that one is holding so I am hoping we go back up past my buy-in. Do not want a repeat of two days ago. I guess I’ll set a stop-loss before falling asleep. Today’s big news is Ripple is not partnering with SWIFT!
October 23: I’m shorting bitcoin against the euro because I think the euro will go up therefore even if btc/usd stays the same, btc/eur will go down as the euro strengthens with weekly oscillations 🙂
“Financial markets are nervous that the Italy’s spending plans will boost the country’s debt, which is already the second highest in the euro zone as a share of economic output after Greece,” (CNBC). Yes we all hate CNBC, but PitbullEconomics won’t load. Possibly because the 8.0.3 Tor update reroutes all my traffic through Britain to the 126.96.36.199 guard node. Too bad most traffic routed through US & Britain is subject to relay node throttling ((grimace)). Weird, it loads after trying for half an hour. Maybe the site was offline. This article on the Euro seems very alarmist. Perhaps I should bet on the yuan? I need a passport to trade on ZB.com and mine expired 😦 I need to recontact utilities again so they send my bills to the right person after my move. Ok! Let’s see if the euro rebounds back up tomorrow! Bitcoin is doing exactly what I want like three times today!
October 24 update: (11:15pm EST) In my opinion, xbt/usd has strong support at 6389.8 right and will do accumulation for 1-2 days in the 6377-6408.5 range.
August 30 update: It fell more?!? I need to set stop losses two support levels below my buy-in one. I doubt bitcoin will fall below $6100 so buying now at $6270 is a risk-free investment. This is because investors need to maintain this price in order to use bitcoin, because miners need to maintain this price in order to keep mining profitable. No mining = no bitcoin transfers getting confirmed, and the price of mining on graphics cards is about $5000-$6000 per bitcoin ($3000 with like geothermal energy and stuff).
October 31 update: STRONG support at 6220. Then a massive buyback. As soon it retested the 2-minute high at the 6288 level I moved my shorts from 6295 to 6322, and then spammed shorts orders when it hit 6333. Skinner on https://www.twitch.tv/cryptotraderstv is a boss.
I think the price will stay below 6700 for the next two weeks. Or at least the most successful investors will sell before it passes 6700, and then rebuy at a cheaper price before 6700 breaks. I’m placing leveraged euro shorts on bitcoin and ethereum, and then once the price dips a teeny bit I’ll long euro/bitcoin, convert my usd to bitcoin and sell it for euros. Cuz euro is at a weekly low.
The price staying at 6300 is odd. It think it could retest 6200 again this month but I doubt it’ll drop below 6100. Honestly the price could jump around both ways so it’s a good week for day traders 🙂
November 3 update: Fall Of Empires: Rome vs USA Very accessible information. This is why I left fiat. Asset forfeiture and inflation.
November 7 update: I lost a lot of money on short position rollover fees 😦 Hoping it dumps from here. 3,061 $BTC ($19,722,023.00 USD) transferred from Unknown wallet to #Huobi-wallet
Could go either way, but if it goes down, it could go DOWWWN!
November 9th update: There is more bullish frontrunning today than there was the entire past month imo. Evidenced by skinner having his entry frontran, which itself was frontrunning cttv’s entry, and by a couple million dollars’ buying power on BitMEX, putting BitMEX $15 above other exchanges! (BitMEX is usually $4 above other exchanges.) Frontrunning is like undercutting a price with a slightly better offer, except with spread out entries. When you buy just above someone else’s entry, their buy orders buffer your long position. That’s why we’re at 6350 imo. 6280 buffering 6320 buffering buffering 6333 buffering today’s buyback (from 6330 to 6350). I closed my ETH shorts at a massive loss, but half of it was closed at the bottom. I also closed my bitcoin shorts at a loss, but now my entries are at breakeven (I entered at 6403, 6390, and 6345). I think we could test the 6370s before dumping. A buyback to 6400 is unlikely due to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0adr1xdEbFU and BitMEX funding (on perpetual contracts) indicating that institutional buyers want to push the price down. I will reverse my position to bearishness once we pass above 6370. I will look to go long once institutional buyers have bought it up at 6200, 6100, and 5800, closing my short positions as we hit those three levels, and I will go long when I see high volume on a squeeze (high amount of trades on an oscillating $10 price range).
… I lost a ton on ETH 😦 I will look at go short when it rises above the daily moving average.
November 11th: This website CoinFarm is extremely informative. It tells how much bitcoin has been sold or bought, and at what times, on BitMEX (the most popular bitcoin exchange). I also found out that throwing significant amounts of money back and forth gains you a lot of intel. Excuse the jargon but I just want to express the ideas concisely. When you trail price with limit orders it pushes price in the direction you want. When someone pushes back and I cancel my orders it tells them I was trailing instead of frontrunning/undercutting! On the flipside, if I have a small wallet, I can represent a larger wallet, but trailing in the direction I DON’T want price to go, and then cancelling orders when it goes in the direction I WANT! This worked out excellently 🙂 And it’s free, costing you nothing. I wonder if this is taught in economics classes? Think about it. Trailing price with bluffs to push the price up, but then cancelling. Lots of people are extremely angry about people who do it, yet you can ironically trail against your position to bluff a large wallet in the asset you don’t have! So if bitcoin moves up and I want to buy bitcoin, I could put a sell wall up and cancel it as the price approaches my sell wall. Observers think people want to push the price down and don’t have much selling power… So if I did this when I DO have selling power..?
Think about whether a sell wall will get filled before deciding if it’s frontrunning or trailing. And if it’s frontrunning, are they undercutting with a camouflaged entry or their whole wallet? If it’s trailing then what does their behaviour say about their wallet? Hmm. So by meeting a sell wall with a buy wall you can see if they back down. If they cancel and remake orders and stack orders at the same price as other people’s orders. If they cancel and don’t remake then they might have a small wallet. If they don’t cancel but add new orders with the price movement then they probably have a large wallet (or it’s multiple people). Five big orders is scarier than one big order that keeps getting cancelled and moved. So that’s the meta. And the counter-meta would be… Representing the opposite of what you have 🙂 Now remember: People want the price to in a direction they can profit from. If people buy in at one price they’ll cash out at a better price. If an institutional investor sells to retailers at the top of a pump then it will be spread between multiple sellers who want a higher price but are less coordinated, and that institutional investor will now have a lot of fiat. This probably applies to pairs other than bitcoin/usd, but the point is, you probably want to trail against wallets smaller than yours, and bluff against wallets larger than yours. Accumulation is when the price stays very low for a few days, which is when the larger wallets buy assets and smaller wallets sell. But any pump over $10,000,000 indicates large wallets buying, and any single trade that is a multiple of $50,000 can indicate a large wallet. Like if you see a 300,000 trade on bitmex it’s probably a large wallet, but if you see hundreds of $1000 trades it’s probably camouflaged entry or arbitrage from trading bots. Camouflage just means small orders without buy walls or sell walls. A camouflaged entry disguises the size of a wallet, but if you see a lot of small orders not being cancelled then it might be from institutional investors. Bitmex.com will show you the volume and let you compare and retrace. CoinFarm will show you the running totals and sudden shifts in buys or sells. High volume indicates strong support or resistance. If the volume is identical to the previous amount at that level then it’s normal. If it’s lower than before then the level has been weakened. If it passes the level with high volume, then it’s either a fakeout or a pump/dump! The latter are what annoy me the most, but if you can figure out how strong the market’s momentum is from the prices people bought-in at and for how much (which CoinFarm will tell) then you can tell whether it is escalating panic at a low price, escalating hype at a high price, or a planned move with large wallets planning to take profit. And this is where CoinFarm comes in. The graphs on CoinFarm are not the volume of trades. They are the leveraged trades. That means liquidations and buybacks. Taking profits, etc. People who are margin trading cannot HODL! Or at least without paying fees. Also people who are already margin trading are less likely to increase their leverage level than people who have no leverage 🙂 Anyways, I thought I had recovered from my November 1st losses. The trades were break-even but the leverage was not! I am still at a loss because I used higher leverage on my November 1st trades 😦 Note that XBT means Bitcoin.
November 12: Any price below $6300 is pretty safe to buy bitcoin. Lowest we’ll go is $5800 but with current hype I doubt we’ll see $6200.
November 14: 5465usd while I’m asleep. I don’t know what to say. I never comprehended the possibility of it dropping below 5800. I guess that Blockchains LLC buy-in? What pisses me off is that I was short the whole last two weeks. Anyways, I’m gonna hodl to some ridiculous price I guess. Miners are getting fk’t.
$30million support level at $5330usd/xbt.
Edit: I’m all-in, maximum leverage. My 6340 position got liquidated and apparently not all altcoins count towards margin trading collateral, so I liquidated myself, did a miniscule scalp, and am max-leverage for 6700 or something silly. Hopefully we don’t cross 5k. I can’t believe we crossed 5800. Long from 5400 after a bunch of my account got wiped from liquidations (my collateral dumping made my liquidate sooner). Hopefully I can make it all back, double-or-nothing.
Leaving this here: How to Day Trade with Price Action
November 17 update: http://technical.traders.com/tradersonline/display.asp?art=2709
November 19th update: I’ve lost the majority of my networth. For some reason Kraken hasn’t liquidated my longs. Maybe they are experiencing liquidity problems. I never thought price would fall below 5800 but it already broke below 4800 and I’m rekt.
If you’re gonna buy it, I would buy at $4736usd or wait for it to dump lower.
November 20 update: I’ve lost 90% of my networth. I’ll invest the scraps I have left into doge and hope I can delay paying the rent until I find some source of income. Yesterday I was in complete shock, yet still believed I could recover my losses by careful, thoughtful, analytical trading and adaptation. But every time I made an entry, price would shift $300-$400 in the opposite direction. There was twice when the price would stay stable for 2 hours and then the minute – literally the minute I entered? Price would drop or rise by $400. This is not a coincidence. I think doge coin is the only way I may possible be able to recover. My bank accounts are empty, and I need to renew my passport before accessing my overseas account. I’m about to enter a serious phase of depression but I suppose on the bright side that means I will be more inspired to write captions… 🙂 My denial phase was at $5800. My rage was at $5300. I tried to climb back up but $5470 was my double-or-nothing entry, and now I have nothing.
I doubled my losses because the coinfarm server lagged out while I was trading and I didn’t notice that it stopped updating T_T
I thought I was looking at live data the whole time T_T
November 25 update: Some good buyback today. Taking note of the 3885 level, which might be a good place to set stop losses. Decent trades today. Credit card maxed-out though
November 28: Perhaps one reason the market ploughs past my entries and take profit levels is because people with opposing positions have stop losses at those levels? So I’m opening shorts where bears are closing shorts and pushing long for better re-entry, and I’m opening longs where bulls are closing longs and dumping for better re-entry? Seems far-fetched. I was so close to making profits today but when the price hit my re-entry I tried to do a limit order instead of a market order, which did not get filled 😦
Maybe it’s that investors are looking to wait out the dips and peaks and enter only when the market has momentum and they can enter on a trend. Yet with levels-trading I get rekt when institutional investors hop on a trend at the level I enter at. That’s why I need 3 entries instead of one or two.
December 1st: Great trades today! Always set three small-scale entries and two large scale entries. Say the price of HomuraCoin (fictional) is $200 and you have a long position. Previous levels of interest are at $230, $229, $222, $208, $202, $197, $195, and $192. You bought-in at $202 and want to sell at $222 but the price is $200. You have 1 HomuraCoin which represents 5% of your networth, and are leveraged with 0.5 HomuraCoin for x1.5 profits or losses. Daily trend is bullish with leveraged short superiority, 4-hr and 1-hr trend is bearish with leveraged long superiority, new highs, and failure to break daily low of $197. Yesterday’s daily low and high were $195 and $200 and the RSI indicator says HomuraCoin is oversold (bullish), with extremely high volume below $177 with a yearly low of $172. Here is what I would do when you need to sleep:
Close your 0.5 long with a limit short at of 0.5 at $222.
Place a limit long of 0.5 at yesterday’s low with a conditional close at today’s high.
Place a 0.1 take-profit at $208 with a stop loss at $210 to hedge your non-leveraged position.
Place a 0.5 take-profit at $222 with a stop loss at $224 to hedge profit from a test of your profit target but buy back in if it breaks.
Place a 1.0 short at $229 to liquidate your investments.
Place a 1.0 hidden short at $258 to reverse your position in case of a pump, with a profit target at $252.
Place a 1.0 short near $259 to represent strength, and a 2.0 hidden long at $261 to act as a stop-loss for your longs if $260 breaks. Set your alarm to wake you up if the price hits $259.
Now the same thing for the downside. A scalp that opens at support and closes at resistance. A small hedged stop loss if the support breaks and a buyback frontrunning the next level of support with $2 profit targets. More buys when the next level of support is tested with a conditional close at the nearest level, and then a stop loss backrunning that support to liquidate your entire position (but not enter short overall since the market is bullish) with a buyback at lower levels and a strong entry at around the yearly low with profit targets above that. Set your alarm to wake you up if it drops to $177.
Hedging according to resistance levels being tested and broken is safer than leaving positions open overnight. I hope that made sense. Basically as the price moves you want to take profits at resistance with a conditional buyback at support, and vice-versa. When that resistance breaks, hedge your assets so that you don’t lose money no matter how the price changes, and then try to scalp the next level with a conditional take profit just below it, and a stop-loss behind that level so that you are hedged if it breaks and you re-enter even stronger at a third entry level with alarm clock ringing.
You should also do this when awake, so that you can automatically scalp the tests and retests without having to race the other scalpers. A scalp is where you sell at a resistance level and then buyback slightly lower to hedge for the next retest.
December 6 update: Shit.
December 15 update: Doge stopped falling. But I lost a bit more in bitcoin. Decide when to get out of a trade, guys. The market depth won’t stop a dump. What stops a dump is when the dumpers have decided they’ve liquidated enough people and there are enough others going short to warrant setting a bottom and liq-hunting the people who went short there. The trading bots can react in seconds to margin analysis. If you want to make money you need extremely low fees or a hodl strat. But hodl doesn’t work if you get liquidated whenever the price changes 50%.